Welcome Ladies and Gentlemen, the grass has been mowed, the foul lines have been drawn, the mound has been racked, and the Bases have been put in their places. Home plate is being adjusted as the hotdogs cook and the peanuts are roasting. Ladies and Gentlemen OPENING DAY IS HERE!! Yes sir as you read this the New York Mets (that other NY team) and the Defending World Champion St Louis Cardinals are preparing to take the field and kick off the 2007 season. Starting today the race begins and begins in earnest over the next few days. So with all the unknowns sent packing, the Rookies sent off to the minor leagues and the starry eyed rookies told they made the team I thought it was time to give you my 2007 regular season predictions. Unlike the experts I’m not going to give you a break down of who will win the MVP or the Cy Young because I have no clue. Baseball is a fickle sport and I’m no expert so I won’t tell you who will win the playoffs as well because for every great contender to start the season there is always a Detroit Tigers team just waiting to shock the world. So I give you these predictions with the full knowledge that I am no expert and that I power my crystal ball with two geriatric hamsters running on a rusty wheel. Or basically I do not pretend that these are accurate predictions just how I see things playing out. So with that said Lets begun the fun shall we??AL EAST
1. New York Yankees:Yea I know you’re shocked at this one right? Well I have to look at this Yankees team this year and you just can’t justify not making this call Yankee fan or not. Even with Wang on the DL for part of April the pitching staff looks stable Pettitte should have a strong year with the Yankees, Moose although another year older looked good last year and should be able to at least win 15 games. Iggy had a rough start in spring training but really showed improvement the last few weeks and I believe he is going to be a solid starter for us. Rasner should be able to fill in till Wang gets back and once Karastan is off the DL he should be ready to back up any starter that goes down with an injury. Behind him you have Olendorf, Hughs, Clipered and eventually Sanchez as well. The Yankees have not only Pitching depth but youth backing them up. More important is the fact that all these starters have to do is keep this team in the game. If the Rotation does not allow games to get away from them the Lineup should be able to do the rest. I’m not saying anybody but Wang or Pettite is going to be competing for the Cy Young (Moose has an outside shot of course but age is going to be a factor here as well) but we don’t need Cy young caliber pitching we need solid pitches that keeps ball games close. I believe we have that in are starters along with a rock solid bullpen and an offense that will be able to score runs with more then just the long ball.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
With a starting two of Roy Holiday and AJ Burnet and a strong bullpen that includes BJ Ryan as their closer you know this team is going to be competitive. But then you look at this line up with Vernon Wells and company in it and it just makes it that much harder to see them loosing more then they win. The problem will be once they get past the first two starters. Chaconne could have a bounce back year but after his DUI stunt it’s hard to see that happening, after that you have John Thompson and after that it’s a toss up over who will actually keep and hold the 5th starter spot. The thing is the Jays are a team of very few holes but holes none the less. They will be competitive but will fall short again this year -Likely missing the playoffs. They could win the Wildcard but my money is on the AL Central again this year.
3. Boston Sucks
Hey Boston fans can go on about Dice K all they want. The Japanese wonder boy is going to get a reality check because the talking is over and it’s time for him to take the mound and show us something. Truth is as much as I don’t’ think this kid will live up to all the hype; he is not going to crash and burn either. Truth is he will have a decent year and probably win close to 12 or 15 games if that. His era is likely to be around 4 although to be honest I’m being generous here as I truly believe it will be closer to 5. The key thing with Dice K will not be when to give him the Rookie Of The Year Award because he won’t win it, or if to give him the Cy Young because he won’t win that either. The key is how well the Sucks handle things when he struggles and the media vultures move in for the kill. Aside form Dice K, Shelling is almost 40 and although he is not going to have a crappy year he won’t be a Cy Young winner either. Truth is Shelling has as much gas left in him as Moose. He will be effective but he will have his bad days too. Then there’s Josh Becket the “Wonder Boy” from last year. Is it mean or do the Sucks have a Wonder Stud pitcher every year that the league ends up hammering or that ends up injured. Becket should improve on his performance from last year but don’t’ count on much improvement or the fast start he had last year. Likely he might win 12 games or so but with high pitch counts and the lack of control, he is unlikely to show significant improvement. Between Wakefield and who ever the Sucks pull in to start as the fifth starter their not going to be enough to really help them win. I say this mostly because they had the worst bullpen in the majors last year (minus Papulbum) and not much has changed about that. Their bullpen blew leads more then a porn star….. well blows. Papulbum although a great closer broke down last year due to over use and with all the hype and honest potential that is there he is ripe for another injury as well. Their lineup did not change much other then adding J D(L) Drew. He brings a good bat with some great pop, but he also brings that bright and shiny personality. Mix that in with Shelling wonderful disposition, Many antics, and a general clubhouse of all about me players and you are not adding a positive here. Then remember this is JD(L) Drew where talking about and injury is just a sneeze away. The Sucks will look good early and Dice K will not, by mid season they will start to slip and Dice K will improve some, come Mid August just like last year we will see the Sucks take a nose dive, and even an improving Dice K won’t help them.
4. Devil Rays
What?? Did I stutter?? Yea that’s right I said the D-rays will not finish in the basement this year. Well to be honest I think they will have a better year then the O’s who honestly did improve themselves this year but I think this is the year they will surprise the league and maybe win more games then they loose (Although not many more). Their Staff Ace Scott Kazmier is a pitching stud and if he can stay healthy is going to be tough to beat. Casey Fossum is not a bad pitcher himself and if he is health all year long could surprise the D-rays as a solid second starter. After that you have Tim Corcoran who could be worse but will likely fall out of favor by May. James Shield a rookie starter from last year is one of the guys on this team that strikes me as a possible Jason Verlander type. A kid who showed promise last year and may just suddenly give the D-Rays a potential Cy Young season. I don’t’ know why I say this about him but he just really impressed me last year. Jae Seo who the D-rays got from the Mets last year is actually not a bad number 5 starter. He was roughed up a lot last year, but I think he will rebound this year and put in a solid season. The thing is as young as the Rays pitching staff is they are effective to the point of keeping them in the game. The Rays actually don’t get blown out as often as people think, normally it’s their BP that kills games for them and this year is no different. Unless they make a move to grab a legitimate closer or one of their young prospects suddenly steps up and can do the job. Their Offense last year was miserable, but you have to remember Cantu, Gomes, and Huff had off years and where injured for most of the season. Huff was traded in July (just as he was starting to get hot) The Rays this year added a Japanese import Iwmura to play third and he brings a solid defensive glove and pretty decent bat. He has had a tough spring but I would not discount his hitting ability based on this. He is going to be an exceptional hitter, in the AL just give him time. Gomes and Cantu should have bounce back years, Carl Crawford is always a threat at the plate, and BJ Upton is always a threat to have a break out year. Truth is if everything clicks for the Rays 4th place and an above 500 record is not out of the question.
5. Orioles
O’s fans will hate me for this but my reason for placing the O’s in the basement of the AL East is two parted. 1) They really did not improve the Team much other then the bullpen. 2) With Chris Benson out for the season, their Rotation takes a major hit. Bedard is likely to show some regression from last year, Cabrera is likely to do the same, and if you’re a Yankee fan you know a team is desperate if they’re counting on Jared Wright to do more then pitch 6 innings of ball and not blow out your BP. The Truth is the O’s are not a bad team and may not finish in the basement but other then vastly improving there Bullpen the only offensive addition they made was adding Aubrey Huff who may have a great season with them but is just not going to be enough. This team really will simply regress this year because that’s what young teams tend to do. The thing is they could finish in 4th and beat out the Rays and if everything clicks, maybe better then that. The problem is when you dealing with as many young players as the O’s and you have had successes the year before regression is just a natural part of the game. They will stumble this year and run out of gas late leaving the door open for the D-rays to slip past them into 4th.
AL Central
1. Indians
The Indians in my opinion are sporting one of the best SOLID rotations in baseball right now. Yes I said that but just to be clear I did not say the BEST rotation I said the best SOLID rotation. What I mean is they have 5 guys that can go out and keep them in every ball game they play. If this happens the Indians will be one hit a way from wining most of their ball games and with there offensive potential that could amount to quite a few wins. Truth is if Liriano is not injured and the White Sox don’t trade Garcia this winter the Indians are looking at another year before they make the playoffs. But the pitching is thin in the central and the Indians are really the only starting rotation with 5 solid starts top to bottom, and the offense to back them up every day
2.Twins
With Liriano on the DL for what is likely the season or at the least most of it the Twins have Santana and then… Err… Well…. Yea see my point. The thing is the Twins always seem to find a way to win and they have a very strong and DEEP bullpen, making them hard to ignore in the central. If Liriano was not injured they would be the easy pick for the central but Santana can’t win every game for them. Truthfully the rest of the Rotation is not that bad but it’s also not that good either. They can win games with these guys and offensively they can hang with the big boppers of the league, but in the end their rotation will hurt them in the division. Lucky for them the White Sox are in far worse trouble and the Royals are well… The Royals.
3. White Sox
The White Sox honestly are not a bad team and would get higher marks from me if their pitching showed me more last year. The truth is Jose Contreras as good as he has been for the Chi Sox is not getting any younger and his decline is proof of that. He may very well face a few injuries this year. Buehrle although a great pitcher just never seems to be able to get over the hump for a full season. He should be good but not much more then that. Garland frustrates me because here is a guy that honestly should be a Cy Young candidate each year. Instead he is mediocre at best, and never seems to be able to get over the top like he should. Vazquez is a solid starter for the Chi Sox and could win 15 games for them. Problem is he could just as easily loose 15 games as well. The BP although solid can be shaky at times and the health of Bobby Jenks is seriously in question these days, so late innings could be a nightmare. The offense is solid on paper but truth is after career years from Konerko, Thome, and Dye and a break out year for Crede they’re all likely to see a decline in numbers. The thing is here just how much of a decline. Thome is injury prone as is Konerko and the ability to be dangerous in this lineup is reliant on those two for Dye. Crede would have a decent enough year but a decline in his batting average and a rise in strikeouts is very likely and that hurts the Chi sox offensively. Again they’re not a bad team but they’re a team that will see underachieving pitching and a bullpen, that will be only as good as the time of day, and offensively score fewer runs then they did last year. All this adds up to a solid third place finish this year. Next year however with the right roster moves this will be a team to contend with.
4. Tigers
Tiger fans are going to hate me for putting them 4th in the division but the truth is they could just as easily finish a solid 3rd as well. Right now as things stand Kenny Rogers is on the DL and this does not bowed well for the Tigers. Although Verlander and Bonderman had a breakout season last year the truth is the odds of them both repeating last years numbers are very much against them. One of them will regress slightly but still have a solid season and the other will crash and burn like the Hindenburg. I’m not slighting either of these guys’ abilities it’s just with young ball players they normally struggle after a strong season. Their BP could be their down fall or their biggest strength that could keep them in the race for the Division. Tod Jones could have another strong season as the teams’ closer but the truth is he is due to show signs of his age and slip. The good news is that Zumaya is right there to take over when this happens and the Tigers should still be tough to beat in the late innings. Just remember thou there are bunch of young relievers and are likely to do well enough this year or crash and burn. The Tigers will be competitive but like the Chi Sox it just won’t be there year. Next year though that will be a different story.
5. Royals
Not much, to really say here other than they’re the Royals-That sums them up. Worst pitching staff in the Majors last year. Worst bullpen, and worse team offensively as well. Not much will change in 07 except Gil Meche will be loosing for a different team and Octavio Dotel will be blowing saves for a different team this year. Offensively they’re not much different other than Grudzielanek will be playing second this year and at some point Alex Gordon will be called up to try to salvage a depressing season for the fans. The Royals are a long way form competing in the AL Central or any league for that matter. The Term “Wait till next year” for this team started in Spring training and the fans saying it were referring to Next Year
AL West
1. A’s
Pitching wise the A’s have two guys that could both win 20 games this year in Harden and Haren, if they can both stay healthy. Loaiza surprised everyone last year and turned in a solid season for the A’s and honestly I would not be surprised to see it happen again. Blanton and Kennedy should round out the rotation and their not overly impressive but should be adequate enough to push the A’s past the Angels in the west. The reason is because the A’s bullpen is very solid with Huston Street closing the games out and a strong group of arms behind him. Offensively the A’s upgraded their DH position with Piazza who should be just as productive as Frank Thomas last year, but is unlikely to spend as much time on the DL as Frank Thomes did as the DH last year. Bobby Crosby one of these seasons is going to prove why he won the Rookie Of The Year Award a few years ago. Could it be this year, don’t hold your breath. Regardless he is a solid defensive shortstop and even with his shortcomings swings a decent bat at times. The only thing the A’s have working against them in their division right now is Kotsay who will start the season on the DL and they’re heavy right handed in the pitching department. This is nothing Billy bean can’t resolve with a trade.
2. AngelsLast years division winners are going to struggle this year in the beginning and that is likely to cost them the playoffs. With Chone Figgins heading to the DL to start the first half of the season and with Weaver joining him, the Angels will have big problems. Add to this the likely decline in Gary Matthews Jr, and the likely hood that Colon and Lacky will see the DL at some point this season. It’s hard to see the Angels keeping up with the A’s, if everybody comes back healthy, and their replacements click the Angels may take the A’s but I don’t see it happening. The Angels are just in a division where your start is just as important as how you finish, and their going to have a really rough start I think.
3. RangersWhat’s interesting about the Rangers is they find a way to be part of the playoffs race every year then just disappear by the end of August. Unfortunately for fans in Texas this year will not be much different. Vincent Padilla was a nice surprise for the Rangers last year and Kevin Millwood should rebound, so the Rangers are in good shape to start. After that things could get dicey as the rest of the rotation leaves much to be desired, and this is what could cost them in the end. Their bullpen is actually not that bad although signing Gagne who will now start the season on the DL was a pretty stupid move if you ask me. Gagne to be honest is done as a closer at least for now and needs to settle into a setup roll for a few years, and rebuild his confidence. With Gagne on the DL the Rangers still have an effective closer in Otsuka who should never have had the job taken away from him in the first place. Last year he was almost as dominating as Papulbum and Rivara, and could potentially be better than he was last year. Offensively the Rangers could be tough with guys like Teixeira, Young, and Blalock in the lineup and add Sammy Sosa to that on paper you have a very scary offense. Problem is Kenny Loffton is at the top of this lineup and to be honest I have never been overly impressed with him after he was a Yankee. He seems like a lazy player to me in the outfield and at his age could very well be an injury risk as well. Figure Sammy Sosa as impressive as the name is honestly was not all that and a wet bag of chips the last time he played Pro ball. Other then De Toxing I doubt much has changed with Sammy other than his bats are with out cork these days as well. He will be given a chance to play every day and if he falls flat, I would not be surprised to see happen, Catalanotto step in and take over. Again in this division you can’t afford to fall behind.
4. MarinersIt’s hard to say a team with Ichiro Suzuki and young Pitching Phenom Felix Hernandez is going to finish last but the truth is this division is just to damn tough for any one team to just get by and win it all. The M’s are not a bad team but compared to their competition they’re not in the same league. Jarrod Washburn should have a decent season, but after him and Hernandez the starting staff is really nothing to write home about. The M’s are facing a lot of early game blowouts and even when the team manages to keep the game close their BP will likely loose a lot of late games for them. JJ Putz is an excellent closer but you have to get the ball to him in the 9th for him to save a game. He will be joining Papulbum on the bench as they watch potential saves get flushed down the toilet in the 7th and 8th for there respected teams. Offensively they’re not bad but not great either. Suzuki does not bring a lot of power to the plate but he makes up for it in speed and the ability to hit anything for a base hit. After that this team is just old and injury prone. They also just love to swing at everything. If your Ichiro and can put the ball in play every time it’s one thing but it’s another thing when your giving the fans a nice breeze over 100 times in the season. This team has the potential to score runs but they also have the potential to barely make contact with the ball. What’s really sad is the best hitter in the game today is also on the worst hitting team in the league. If the M’s can improve on their contact game and start moving runners on the base they might stand a chance. That’s about as likely to happen as Jeff Weaver wining the Cy young. So last place it is.
Ok That’s the AL. This thing is getting really long. I’m just going to Breeze over the NL because 1) I don’t want to make this any longer then I have to, and 2) If I have to go into detail why the cubs are going to stink this year. This thing will be 20 pages long just for that. So a Quick Recap on the NL starting with….
NL EAST
1. Braves
NL Central
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Cubs
4. Reds
5. Astros
Why?? Well for starters the Brewers have a top notching rotation of Suppan, Sheets, Capuano, and Bush. The first three could easily win 18 to 20 games this year. With closer Cordero just itching to have a bounce back year and a strong bullpen behind him the Brew Crew are not likely to loose games in the late innings. They take a hit with Carlos Lee gone but they played half the season without him last year and still looked good. Brady Clark is likely to have a bounce back year Prince Fielder will have a second good season and this team will score runs which in the NL Central is a rarity. The Cards will struggle mostly because of their starting pitching. Carpenter and the potential of Adam Wainwright are really the only reason this team might finish second. If Carpenter has an off year or Wainright falters they may finish much lower. The Cubs spent plenty of dough over the winter to bad it was not on finding a way to keep Wood and Prior healthy for a season. If Wood can ever get off the DL he could be a good reliever and might even replace Dempster as the closer. Ted Lilly is likely to have a good season as a Cub after that Zambrano, and then it just gets ugly. Offensively a lot depends on Derek Lee and Soriano. If these two can get off to a good strong start the cubs will score runs by the bunches, if not it’s going to be a long summer in Wrigley The Reds have two strong starters in Harang and Arroy but to be honest for both of them to repeat their performances from last year is highly unlikly. After that Milton is a HR machine and being a pitcher that’s not a good thing. Lohse is not bad but not good either and Ramirez could be better but just isn’t. Offensively the Reds should pack a mighty punch of speed and power but they always seem to fall short mostly because this team loves to strike out. Although not as bad as the M’s are many a rally goes down quietly by the call of strike three in Cinncy and right now that’s probably not going to change. The Stros are likely the worst team in this division now with Pettitte having gone home to the Yankees and the Rocket not sure where he will play this year. If Rogers comes back to the Stros expect them to finish better then last but to be honest that may not even be enough. Their offensive is bad and even Carlos Lee can’t help them unless Ensberg turns things around from last year disaster season and Burke and Berkman don’t get hurt. Truth is some of these guys will regress this year, and that hurts a team that has trouble scoring runs to start with. This division more or less wide open from 2-5 but the Brewers will get off to a fast start and never look back although a late season decline would not surprise me but by then It won’t matter if they have built a big enough lead.
NL WEST
1. Rockies
Well that’s it folks my Pre-season predictions hope you enjoyed them, and feel free to leave a comment and tell me who you think will finish where this year.
Till Next week
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